Science fiction authors and futurists don’t predict the future. They extrapolate based on current conditions and talk about potential futures. A science fiction story will focus on one potential future and explore it in depth, while a futurist might come up with a range of scenarios to discuss.
One popular way to represent a range of scenarios is through a Voros cone (named for Joseph Voros), which is sometimes called a futures cone. As you can see above, there’s a range of possibilities. Some representations include a larger outer cone called ‘preposterous.’ Let’s go through these in order:
Preposterous: Scenarios or futures thought to be impossible.
Possible: Futures that might happen, but are thought to be less likely than other scenarios.
Plausible: Futures that could happen.
Probable: Based on current trends, futures that are likely to happen. Sometimes also called projected futures.
Preferable: Futures that could happen and that might be preferable to other futures, based on a subjective set of criteria.